Morning Consult

Brink · December 5, 2024

Focus: Approval ratings for U.S. Senators and polling numbers for elections.

Edited December 23, 2024 by Brink

Brink · December 5, 2024

Q3-Q4 2025 Approval Ratings
Person	Caucus	State	Approval %	Disapproval %	Unsure %	Notes
Sen. Marjorie Ashcroft	Freedom	North Carolina	50.60	35.40	14.00	An active presence in questioning Levi Koenig in his nomination hearing for Treasury Secretary. Has catered to Freedom Caucus issues in a Freedom Caucus controlled state with the Education Transparency and Parental Rights Act and the parental bill of rights at the state level.
Sen. Frederick Baudelaire	Progressive	Massachusetts	41.40	50.60	8.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. John Burton	Main Street	Ohio	47.80	38.20	14.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Douglas Butcher	Study Committee	Texas	44.80	43.20	12.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Nate Calloway	Freedom	Nebraska	49.20	30.80	20.00	Calloway has been a strong presence so far in his press office and has introduced small business legislation. He has been out there on the pandemic bill, the legislation he introduced, energy independence, and been mentioned in the media. It's early, but Nebraskans like what they've seen so far.
Sen. Rafael Coleman	New Democrat	Colorado	51.20	40.80	8.00	Coleman quickly coalesced much of Congress around the Emergency Disaster Relief Act of 2025. His strong, bipartisan leadership on the legislation makes his constieunts feel like he has power in his position as Senate Minority Leader. His backing of Abigail Spanberger, who won the Virginia Governor's race, also added into his constieunts feel like they have a powerful voice in their Senator.
Sen. Elizabeth Donnelly	New Democrat	New York	45.20	44.80	10.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Earl Duplantis	Freedom	Louisiana	50.60	41.40	8.00	Succesfully passed through Congress the Revitalizing American Seafood Industry Act. Many politicians say they are going to do things, but as Duplantis's positive approval rating shows, it matters that they get done what they say they will. Constituents are happy that Duplantis has a say in what is going on at the highest levels of the Republican Party. He also brought the pork home with the Oakland Athletics temporarily moving to New Orleans.
Sen. Wyatt Granger	Main Street	Montana	45.80	44.20	10.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Esperanza Hall	New Democrat	Colorado	47.40	32.60	20.00	She had a strong presence on the Pandemic Preparedness and Public Health Security Act. Now that has gotten her on the map to her constituents, they want to see what else she has up her sleeve now.
Sen. Elizabeth Hunt	Study Committee	Alabama	48.00	44.00	8.00	Hunt went through the sex tape scandal, but did sort of make lemons of lemonade with it with the Pornographic Content Reform Act. Some people in Alabama though don't love Hunt talking about this issue. She isn't always the most clear in her statements though and does have the baggage of being a super hawk on foreign policy. Not many people are talking about the Monroe Doctrine in 2025.
Sen. Dylan Kennedy	Progressive	Massachusetts	46.20	33.80	20.00	He voted against the Bu nomination for Vice President and introduced the Abortion Justice Act. However, besides that, not much from this Senator yet. Constituents don't know a lot about him yet.
Sen. Ross McCallen	New Democrat	Arizona	44.40	35.60	20.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Barak Mofaz	Blue Dog	Georgia	46.20	39.80	14.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. James Morgan	Blue Dog	Maryland	46.00	34.00	20.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Charlotte O'Hare	New Democrat	Hawaii	49.80	42.20	8.00	O'Hare has been a strong presence in the media and public sphere. Constituents definitvely know where she stands on things. A lot of her legislation have been the ones that are making it through the House, though they haven't been making it through the Senate for obvious reasons. Her climb will obviously be a slower one for those reasons if she stays the course. People want to know that you are getting stuff done for them.
Sen. Jack Raines	Freedom	Montana	45.00	41.00	14.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Truman Sizemore	Blue Dog	Pennsylvania	44.40	43.60	12.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Osiris Storm	Progressive	New York	49.80	42.20	8.00	Storm has recently been a strong presence in the public discourse. However, constituents dinged him a bit for going back on his promise of a $15 minimum wage with plans to gradually increase it even further over time. He seemingly gave into the deal to only raise the minimum wage to $15 after the year 2031 potentially. Storm has now committed to fighting President Van Horn's "weak e-verify executive order", constituents want to see how effective he is able to do that.
Sen. Kelly Thornicroft	Main Street	Florida	43.00	42.00	15.00	No real legislative chops in the last two quarters: no legislation sponsored, no floor presence, no amending of legislation. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. Hannah Trujillo Kahiona	Progressive	Hawaii	49.00	43.00	8.00	Trujillo Kahoina has been a somewhat controversial Senator: she has called the President pathetic as well as made some people feel like she is angry that she lost the 2024 election. However, she got the Storm Shelter Act of 2025. It is a legislative accomplishment, one that may be more positive to those on the mainland than in her home state though.
Sen. Vini Vinachelli	Main Street	New Jersey	50.00	42.00	8.00	Vinachelli got two major pieces of his legislation through: the Higher Wages Act and the Permanent Tax Cuts Act, albiet amended. He is also showing his constituents that he is working on economic issues with these pieces of legislation. He has now pledged to work with parent’s rights groups to advocate for greater transparency and involvement for their kids in the classroom. It will be interesting to see how he does so.
Sen. Chandler Williams	New Democrat	Oregon	44.40	43.60	12.00	Has not really been a presence in the public discourse: constituents will start to wonder where he stands on the issues. They know he has been introducing legislation, which is helpful. But they want more.
Sen. Thomas Worthen	Freedom	South Carolina	47.00	33.00	20.00	Not really a ton to know about this guy yet, constituents like that he is in leadership. That assumes he will have some influence over what happens in the Republican Party but people don't know what to make yet.

Brink · December 5, 2024

Q3-Q4 2025 Caucus Approval Ratings
Caucus	Approval Rating %
Freedom Caucus	50.50
Study Committee	46.00
Main Street Partnership	50.75
Blue Dog Caucus	41.75
New Democratic Caucus	49.75
Progressive Caucus	51.25

Generic Ballot:

Republican: 49, Democrat: 47.5

Edited December 5, 2024 by Brink

Brink · December 21, 2024

Q1-Q2 2026 Approval Ratings
Person	Caucus	State	Approval %	Disapproval %	Unsure %	Notes
Sen. Marjorie Ashcroft	Freedom	North Carolina	49.20	42.80	8.00	The Senator has some built up goodwill, but she certainly slipped back this period. Her legislative record lately has been lacking. Remember that everything is what have you done for me lately, can't ride on previous achivements or previous legislation introduced.
Sen. John Burton	Main Street	Ohio	49.20	42.80	8.00	Constituents are intrigued by what you have been doing. He seems somewhat like a traditional, old time conservative in what he advocates for. People don't tend to have an issue with it, they find it interesting in this day and age. Besides introducing his proposals though, people are wanting a little bit from him more on the big issues of the day as well as a little bit more of a consistent voting record.
Sen. John Carlson	Blue Dog	Minnesota	49.60	30.40	20.00	New to the scene, constituents are still feeling him out. However, they do like the fact that he has been a pragmatic, mostly reasonable voice that has been skeptical of the President's agenda over some of his more bombastic Democratic colleagues. He promised he would vote for Levi Koenig as Secretary of Treasury, even though many Democrats didn't like that, but he stuck to his guns and his constituents appreciated it. However, he was hurt after a C-SPAN camera caught him rolling his eyes at the President's State of the Union Address.
Sen. Arthur Conroy	New Democrat	New Mexico	48.00	32.00	20.00	New to the scene, constituents are still feeling him out. However, he has been consistently doing his job in the Senate. In addition, he was considered a top voice of the Democrats on the Snowden pardon. It will be interesting to see how he expands out into his own voice from there, especially in a state dominated by Blue Dog Democrats.
Sen. Samuel Crafts	Progressive	Washington	48.80	31.20	20.00	New to the scene, constituents are still feeling him out. Constituents like that his first big legislative push is for something that directly benefits his home state. Constituents at some point are going to want to know where he stands on the big issues of the day though.
Sen. Rafael Coleman	New Democrat	Colorado	53.50	38.50	8.00	The Senate Majority Leader continues to bolster his re-election effort, in part, from his ability to shephered the Emergency Disaster Relief Act of 2025 as seamlessly as he did. That shows vast influence to his constituents. However, his chief of staff created some trouble for him in this period with her tweets like "the RNC is big mad". As someone who is somewhat expected to cross the aisle, that behavior does make things just a little bit shaky for his standing.
Sen. Elizabeth Donnelly	New Democrat	New York	44.70	47.30	8.00	Donnelly's seeming flip flop on her support of the HEALTH Act really did not help her in this period. However, she has been out there on important national issues, so while she is under water now she didn't hurt herself as bad as it looks. She has been holding the new administration accountable in public as she promised her constituents she would. She does need to build her legislative record back up though to get back up again.
Sen. Earl Duplantis	Freedom	Louisiana	58.80	33.20	8.00	Duplantis's Venezuelan Stabilization and Recovery Act of 2026 is seemingly on the fast track to the President's desk, which shows he has serious influence as Senate Majority Leader. He has also been one of the most active Senators on the floor with both amendments to make bills better and voting. He has also been very active in the media, certainly one of the gold standards in the Senate at the moment.
Sen. Wyatt Granger	Main Street	Montana	49.20	42.80	8.00	Granger has certainly had a succesful rating period. He's been much more active in the Senate, with legislation that has been docketed for consideration by the Senate Majority Leader. His opinions and stances have also been picked up in the media. He's on the path upward.
Sen. Gus Guenther	New Democrat	Rhode Island	46.60	33.40	20.00	New to the scene, constituents are still feeling him out. His constituents are certainly curious what he is going to do for them besides try to start investigations into pardons. He hasn't really shown much of a legislative presence yet. He does get headlines, which is helpful along with his brutal honesty. He's also mostly avoided the easy to create controversies unlike other colleagues.
Sen. Esperanza Hall	New Democrat	Colorado	42.00	44.00	14.00	Constituents don't really know where she has been lately.
Sen. Elizabeth Hunt	Study Committee	Alabama	47.30	44.70	8.00	Hunt has been somewhat active in the Senate; however, she hasn't had any real media presence in the period which will always hurt you. With the sex tape scandal still looming some, it won't be as hard for her to enter the danger zone as it is for others.
Sen. Mark LaForce	Study Committee	West Virginia	46.40	33.60	20.00	New to the scene, constituents are still feeling him out. He is starting to build a legislative record, but he certainly needs to keep building it before constituents are fully satisified there. He does an okay job at reaching out to his constituents, but they also are curious where he stands on the national issues of the day. As with a lot of Senators on Twitter, if you're saying something that isn't noteworthy, you've got to make sure no one can remember it down the road for being controversial. Sometimes it is better not to take the bait.
Sen. Ross McCallen	New Democrat	Arizona	37.50	48.50	14.00	He told constituents he would vote for the Hospital Competition Act once voting opened, unfortunately he didn't. On top of that, people don't really know what he's been up to lately so he's definitely hurting now.
Sen. James Morgan	Blue Dog	Maryland	43.70	42.30	14.00	This Senator has increased his legislative chops by being an active presence in voting, however he had no media presence in the period. That hurts hard. However, he does still have some who don't really know who he is, so it won't hurt as bad yet as it could later. Morgan should step up his media presence though.
Sen. Charlotte O'Hare	Progressive	Hawaii	56.20	35.80	8.00	O'Hare has been one of the more active Senators this period. She has introduced several bills, many of which are apparently liked enough by the Speaker to where many make it onto the floor. Therefore, she is showing that she has influence with her constiuents. She has made some big promises in this period such as the fillibuster threat and addressing the student debt and college affordability crisis. They will be very interested to see where these go.
Sen. Jack Raines	Freedom	Montana	41.00	45.00	14.00	Started off strong, but hasn't continued that. Constituents don't really know where he has been lately.
Sen. Osiris Storm	Progressive	New York	44.60	47.40	8.00	Oh boy. Where to start with this Senator? Constituents do like some of the things you're doing, but the stark reality is that your Twitter fights have become a total distraction to the good things you could be doing. Unfortunately they know much less of these things due to the distraction. "Van Horn did Van Nothing", "Mr. Krabs", posting a hot face emoji to a fellow Senator's tweet, the implication that a fellow Democrat is "full of hot air", and other instances are making your constituents wonder if you are there to serve them, or a future career on MSNBC.
Sen. Kelly Thornicroft	Main Street	Florida	36.20	55.80	8.00	Constituents don't really know where she has been lately.
Sen. Hannah Trujillo Kahiona	Progressive	Hawaii	49.20	42.80	8.00	Trujillo Kahoina continues her controversial streak, which will make her climb in approvals much slower. As with a lot of Senators on Twitter, if you're saying something that isn't noteworthy, you've got to make sure no one can remember it down the road for being controversial. Saying a fellow Senator is gaining brownie points with Suncor may be funny to progressives on Twitter, but the rest of the country who voted for you for President.... it's more of a mixed bag.
Sen. Vini Vinachelli	Main Street	New Jersey	56.50	35.50	8.00	Vinachelli didn't have two major bills signed into law this time around, but he still had a good period. He is one of the more active Senators and has bipartisan chops. He's also incredibly active in his home state. Not a lot of bad things to say about him at this point.
Sen. Chandler Williams	Blue Dog	Oregon	41.90	50.10	8.00	He proposed the Gas Tax Holiday Act (that is not nessecarily looked at in a bipartisan light due to the current debate on energy) and became Blue Dog Chairman, but outside of that... constituents don't know what he's been doing. People don't really know where he stands on the issues of the day, he has had no media presence at all. He told constituents he would lead the Blue Dog Caucus through their legislative priorities... where is his leadership? He's going to have to turn things around fast to keep from slipping further.
Sen. Thomas Worthen	Freedom	South Carolina	44.00	42.00	14.00	While saying you are glad that Senator Coleman took math at Howard maybe funny to conservatives on Twitter, it doesn't nessecarily help you in the big picture. That is especially the case when you have had zero legislative presence. Don't forget you are a legislator first.

Vesica · December 23, 2024

Primary Polls Reveal Heated Contests Across Key States as 2026 Election Cycle Begins

March 3, 2026

With the 2026 primaries approaching, new polling highlights intense battles within both major parties as factional divides shape the electoral landscape. From Senate races in the Deep South to swing states in the West, candidates representing the diverse ideological wings of the Democratic and Republican parties are vying for their party’s nomination. Here are the key takeaways from the latest polling data:

Alabama - Democratic Primary for Senator

State Representative Chris England (53%) holds a slim lead over Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed (47%) in Alabama’s Democratic Senate primary. England’s support from Blue Dogs and New Democrats is countered by Reed’s strong urban and progressive backing.

Arkansas - Democratic Primary for Senator

Josh Mahony (58%) emerges as the favorite over Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott Jr. (42%). Mahony’s appeal to moderates and rural Democrats solidifies his position, while Scott struggles to broaden his progressive coalition beyond the capital city.

Florida - Democratic Primary for Senator

A high-profile race pits former Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (40%) against Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (60%). Levine Cava, with backing from New Democrats and Progressives, has surged ahead of Fried, whose appeal remains strongest among rural and older voters.

Idaho - Republican Primary for Senator

Attorney General Raul Labrador (55%) leads Superintendent of Public Instruction Debbie Critchfield (45%). Labrador’s Study Committee backing and established name recognition make him the frontrunner in a staunchly conservative state.

Idaho - Democratic Primary for Senator

Melissa Wintrow (52%) edges out Alison Rabe (48%) in the Democratic race. While Wintrow appeals to centrists, Rabe’s progressive base makes this a close contest.

Kentucky - Democratic Primary for Senator

Former Attorney General Andy Beshear (60%) is dominating Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg (40%). Beshear’s centrist credentials resonate strongly, despite Greenberg’s efforts to mobilize the state’s progressives.

Louisiana - Democratic Primary for Senator

Former Governor John Bel Edwards (65%) holds a commanding lead over State Senator Katrina Jackson-Andrews (35%). Edwards’ record as a moderate unifier overshadows Jackson-Andrews’ progressive campaign.

Minnesota - Republican Primary for Senator

Former NFL player Matt Birk (53%) leads State Senator Scott Jensen (47%) in a close race. Birk’s outsider appeal, coupled with Study Committee support, gives him a slight edge over Jensen, who represents the Freedom Caucus.

Mississippi - Democratic Primary for Senator

Jennifer Riley Collins (54%) leads Sarita Simmons (46%) in a competitive race. Collins’ military background and moderate stance resonate statewide, though Simmons has gained traction with progressive activists.

Montana - Democratic Primary for Senator

In a dramatic battle of political heavyweights, former Governor Steve Bullock (52%) narrowly leads former Senator Jon Tester (48%). Bullock’s progressive platform has energized younger voters, while Tester retains strong rural support.

Nebraska - Democratic Primary for Senator

Former Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler (51%) holds a razor-thin lead over current Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird (49%). Beutler’s appeal to moderates is balanced by Baird’s progressive momentum.

New Mexico - Republican Primary for Senator

Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell (52%) leads Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry (48%). Herrell’s establishment backing gives her a slight advantage in this conservative-leaning primary.

Oklahoma - Democratic Primary for Senator

Former Governor Brad Henry (62%) is cruising ahead of Tulsa Mayor Monroe Nichols (38%). Henry’s moderate legacy in Oklahoma positions him as the clear favorite.

Oregon - Republican Primary for Senator

House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (58%) leads Representative Rick Lewis (42%). Drazan’s pragmatic approach appeals to Oregon’s more moderate Republicans, giving her a significant edge.

Rhode Island - Republican Primary for Senator

Aaron Guckian (55%) is leading Cranston Mayor Kenneth Hopkins (45%). Guckian’s reputation as a steady moderate has propelled him ahead in the state’s Republican primary.

South Dakota - Republican Primary for Senator

Governor Kristi Noem (70%) is the overwhelming favorite against Representative Taffy Howard (30%). Noem’s statewide popularity and Freedom Caucus backing leave Howard trailing far behind.

South Dakota - Democratic Primary for Senator

Oren Lesmeister (52%) narrowly leads Shawn Bordeaux (48%) in a tight race. Lesmeister’s progressive platform is proving competitive in a challenging state for Democrats.

Tennessee - Democratic Primary for Senator

State Senator Raumesh Akbari (55%) leads Representative Antonio Parkinson (45%). Akbari’s leadership in Tennessee’s Senate gives her an edge, despite Parkinson’s progressive following.

Texas - Democratic Primary for Senator

In a crowded race, actor Matthew McConaughey (40%) is ahead, followed by Chair Gilberto Hinojosa (30%) and San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg (30%). McConaughey’s celebrity and centrist appeal make him a formidable candidate.

West Virginia - Republican Primary for Senator

Secretary of State Mac Warner (52%) narrowly leads Attorney General JB McCuskey (48%). Warner’s institutional support is proving decisive in a competitive race.

West Virginia - Democratic Primary for Senator

Justice William Wooten (51%) is locked in a close race with Charleston Mayor Amy Shuler Goodwin (49%). Wooten’s judicial credentials are just enough to edge out Goodwin’s progressive campaign.

Wyoming - Democratic Primary for Senator

State Democratic Chair Joseph Barbuto (60%) is dominating Minority Leader Mike Yin (40%). Barbuto’s statewide name recognition gives him a significant advantage in this deep-red state.

Vesica · December 23, 2024

Alabama - Republican Primary for Governor

Rick Pate: 48%
Will Ainsworth: 52%
Ainsworth holds a slight lead, benefiting from his broader name recognition as Lieutenant Governor, but Pate’s tenure in agricultural roles keeps it competitive.

Alabama - Democratic Primary for Governor

Bobby Singleton: 58%
Randall Woodfin: 42%
Singleton’s extensive legislative experience and appeal in rural areas outweigh Woodfin’s urban progressive base.

Alaska - Republican Primary for Governor

Click Bishop: 30%
Nancy Dahlstrom: 33%
Cathy Giessel: 37%
Dahlstrom and Giessel are closely tied due to their extensive state-level leadership, while Bishop trails with a narrower regional appeal.

Alaska - Democratic Primary for Governor

Mark Begich: 60%
Forrest Dunbar: 40%
Begich’s statewide recognition and history as a U.S. Senator give him a clear advantage over Dunbar.

Arizona - Republican Primary for Governor

Kimberly Yee: 45%
Mark Lamb: 55%
Lamb’s populist appeal as a sheriff resonates strongly in Arizona, edging out Yee’s more traditional conservative platform.

Arkansas - Democratic Primary for Governor

Mark Pryor: 60%
Greg Leding: 40%
Pryor’s legacy and moderate appeal dominate in a deeply conservative state, limiting Leding’s progressive traction.

Connecticut - Republican Primary for Governor

Themis Klarides: 70%
Erin Stewart: 30%
Klarides’ extensive legislative experience and statewide recognition make her the clear favorite over Stewart.

Florida - Democratic Primary for Governor

Donna Deegan: 30%
Val Demings: 50%
Jason Pizzo: 20%
Demings’ strong law enforcement background and prior congressional leadership position her as the frontrunner.

Georgia - Democratic Primary for Governor

Nikema Williams: 55%
Stacey Evans: 45%
Williams benefits from her statewide organizational ties, but Evans’ focus on progressive policies keeps her competitive.

Hawaii - Republican Primary for Governor

Kurt Fevella: 25%
Duke Aiona: 75%
Aiona’s long history in Hawaii politics positions him as the overwhelming favorite.

Iowa - Democratic Primary for Governor

Rita Hart: 60%
Rob Sand: 40%
Hart’s leadership of the state Democratic Party gives her a clear edge, though Sand’s auditor role generates some interest.

Kansas - Republican Primary for Governor

Vicki Schmidt: 45%
Ron Estes: 55%
Estes’ congressional experience resonates more strongly in conservative Kansas than Schmidt’s focus on state-level issues.

Kansas - Democratic Primary for Governor

David Tolland: 55%
Tom Holland: 45%
Tolland’s combination of executive experience and progressive support narrowly edges out Holland’s legislative appeal.

Maryland - Republican Primary for Governor

Andy Harris: 35%
Boyd Rutherford: 65%
Rutherford’s moderate appeal and tenure as Lieutenant Governor dominate Harris’ more conservative Freedom Caucus platform.

Massachusetts - Republican Primary for Governor

Chris Doughty: 60%
Karyn Polito: 40%
Doughty’s prior candidacy and business background make him a stronger contender in this moderate state.

Michigan - Republican Primary for Governor

Eileen Pugh: 40%
Sarah Lightner: 60%
Lightner’s legislative record and connections within Michigan politics give her an edge over Pugh.

Michigan - Democratic Primary for Governor

Garlin Gilchrist: 55%
Mallory McMorrow: 45%
Gilchrist’s statewide recognition as Lieutenant Governor makes him the favorite, though McMorrow’s legislative accomplishments appeal to progressives.

Nebraska - Democratic Primary for Governor

Jane Kleeb: 50%
Jane Raybould: 35%
Dan Osborn: 15%
Kleeb’s name recognition and rural appeal secure her a strong lead over Raybould and the independent Osborn.

Nevada - Democratic Primary for Governor

Aaron Ford: 60%
Cisco Aguilar: 40%
Ford’s strong statewide presence as Attorney General positions him as the frontrunner.

New Hampshire - Democratic Primary for Governor

Maggie Hassan: 70%
Donna Soucy: 30%
Hassan’s extensive federal experience gives her a commanding lead over Soucy.

New York - Democratic Primary for Governor

Kathy Hochul: 51%
Ritchie Torres: 49%
Hochul’s incumbency and moderate appeal narrowly outpace Torres’ strong progressive base for the time being, but this is the closest Democratic Primary.

Ohio - Republican Primary for Governor

Mike Carey: 45%
Jon Husted: 55%
Husted’s statewide profile as Lieutenant Governor gives him the edge over Carey.

Oklahoma - Republican Primary for Governor

Jim Bridenstine: 60%
Stephanie Bice: 40%
Bridenstine’s higher-profile career and past NASA leadership resonate more than Bice’s congressional record.

Oklahoma - Democratic Primary for Governor

Annie Menz: 40%
Julia Kirt: 60%
Kirt’s leadership and ability to appeal to moderates give her a solid advantage.

Oregon - Republican Primary for Governor

Cyrus Javadi: 35%
Greg Walden: 65%
Walden’s long congressional tenure and statewide appeal make him the clear favorite.

Pennsylvania - Republican Primary for Governor

Tim DeFoor: 40%
Lloyd Smucker: 60%
Smucker’s legislative and regional connections give him the lead.

South Dakota - Republican Primary for Governor

Larry Rhoden: 45%
Marty Jackley: 55%
Jackley’s history as Attorney General positions him as the frontrunner.

Tennessee - Republican Primary for Governor

Glenn Jacobs: 50%
Tim Burchett: 50%
This race is a toss-up, with Jacobs’ outsider appeal balancing Burchett’s political experience.

Tennessee - Democratic Primary for Governor

John Ray Clemmons: 60%
Freddie O’Connell: 40%
Clemmons’ legislative record and centrist appeal dominate O’Connell’s progressive focus.

Texas - Democratic Primary for Governor

Lina Hidalgo: 55%
Carol Alvarado: 45%
Hidalgo’s rising profile and executive leadership narrowly edge out Alvarado’s legislative experience.

Wisconsin - Republican Primary for Governor

Bryan Steil: 40%
Amy Binfields: 60%
Binfields’ legislative background gives her a decisive advantage over Steil.

Wyoming - Republican Primary for Governor

Harriet Hageman: 60%
Albert Sommers: 40%
Hageman’s strong association with Wyoming’s conservative electorate makes her the frontrunner.

Brink · December 23, 2024

2026 House Primaries
Analysis of specific, notable House primaries will come later depending on time. Races are characterized as Tossup, Lean, or Solid in favor of a candidate.

REPUBLICAN	Candidate 1	Candidate 2	Candidate 3	Characterization
Alaska-At Large	Mike Dunleavy	Sarah Palin		Lean Dunleavy
California 48	Marie Waldron	Carl DeMaio		Lean Waldron
Florida 4	Aaron Bean	Lenny Curry		Tossup
Maryland 1	Dan Cox	Christopher Bruneau		Solid Cox
Mississippi 3	Michael Guest	Shad White		Lean Guest
Montana 2	Troy Downing	Sam Granger		Tossup
New York 18	Colin Schmitt	Alison Esposito		Lean Esposito
Texas 2	Daniel Crenshaw	Tony Buzbee		Tossup
Texas 23	Tony Gonzales	Brandon Herrera		Lean Gonzales
Virginia 9	Wren Williams	Joseph McNamara		Tossup
Washington 4	Jerrod Sessler	Jeremie Dufault	Tiffany Smiley	Tossup

DEMOCRATS	Candidate 1	Candidate 2	Candidate 3	Characterization
Arizona 7	Laura Conover	Regina Romero		Tossup
California 8	Lori Wilson	Cristina Arriola		Lean Wilson
California 48	Monica Montgomery Steppe	Cottie Petrie-Norris		Lean Montgomery Steppe
California 50	Akilah Weber	Brian Maienschein		Solid Weber
Maryland 5	Steny Hoyer	Katherine Tai		Lean Hoyer
Massachusetts 8	Stephen Lynch	Brandy Fluker Oakley		Solid Lynch
Mississippi 2	Sarita Simmons	Cassandra Welchlin		Solid Simmons
New Mexico 3	Councilor Chavez	Lucia Guzmán		Solid Chavez
New York 7	Carmen De La Rosa	Kristen Gonzalez		Lean De La Rosa
New York 19	Josh Riley	Michael Donnelly		Tossup
Ohio 9	Sandra Williams	Michele Grim		Tossup
Rhode Island 1	Gabe Amo	Sam Bell		Lean Amo
Rhode Island 2	Seth Magaziner	Victoria Gu		Solid Magaziner

Edited December 23, 2024 by Brink

Vesica · December 28, 2024

Democratic Governor Primaries; Updated Polling

New York: Torres Takes the Lead

Ritchie Torres: 56% (+7)
Kathy Hochul: 44% (-7)

Congressman Ritchie Torres has taken a commanding lead over incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul, riding a wave of Progressive enthusiasm and the backing of Senator Osiris Storm. Hochul, facing challenges from both the left and right, struggles to shore up her base despite endorsements from key establishment figures like Senator Liz Donnelly.

Georgia: Evans Edges Ahead

Stacey Evans: 52% (+7)
Nikema Williams: 48% (-7)

State Representative Stacey Evans has gained momentum, leveraging strong Progressive support and highlighting her legislative record. Nikema Williams, despite her dual backing from New Democrats and Blue Dogs, is losing ground as Evans consolidates urban and rural coalitions.

Michigan: McMorrow Surges

Mallory McMorrow: 57% (+12)
Garlin Gilchrist: 43% (-12)

Mallory McMorrow’s campaign is resonating with voters, thanks to a blend of Progressive energy and an emphasis on policy specifics. Gilchrist, despite his deep ties to Michigan's political establishment, appears to be struggling to counteract McMorrow's narrative of fresh leadership and has seen a near collapse of his support.

Alabama: Singleton lead weakens but holds

Bobby Singleton: 53% (-5)
Randall Woodfin: 47% (+5)

Bobby Singleton's Blue Dog-backed campaign has maintained its lead, though Randall Woodfin's Progressive base remains energized and could still close the gap with an increased turnout push in urban centers.

Alaska: Begich Maintains Advantage

Mark Begich: 55% (-5)
Forrest Dunbar: 45% (+5)

Mark Begich, drawing on his past Senate tenure, continues to dominate among Blue Dog voters, while Forrest Dunbar has expanded beyond his Progressive and New Democrat core, though Begich still holds a comfortable lead.

Arkansas: Pryor Widens Lead

Mark Pryor: 55% (-5)
Greg Leding: 45% (+5)

Former Senator Mark Pryor has seen his lead shrink but it is buoyed by his appeal to rural voters and Blue Dogs. Leding faces challenges in countering Pryor’s extensive name recognition and deep ties to Arkansas politics.

Florida: Three-Way Standoff Intensifies

Val Demings: 45% (-5)
Jason Pizzo: 30% (+10)
Donna Deegan: 25% (-5)

Val Demings has emerged as the frontrunner, successfully uniting New Democrats and Blue Dogs. Jason Pizzo remains competitive as the Progressive candidate, rapidly gaining ground, while Donna Deegan has seen her support diminish significantly. Demings is the overwhelming favorite.

Iowa: Hart Gains Commanding Lead

Rita Hart: 55% (-5)
Rob Sand: 45% (+5)

Rita Hart is capitalizing on her statewide name recognition and ties to rural communities, outpacing Rob Sand, whose appeal remains limited to urban Progressive enclaves, though the gap is shrinking between the two of them.

Nebraska: Kleeb Leads in Tight Three-Way Race

Jane Kleeb: 45% (-5)
Jane Raybould: 30% (-5)
Dan Osborn: 25% (+10)

Jane Kleeb has emerged as the frontrunner, solidifying her Blue Dog base, while Progressive candidate Dan Osborn continues to lag due to his outsider status despite making ground. It is likely Kleeb will pull away with the nomination.

Nevada: Ford Remains Dominant

Aaron Ford: 55% (-5)
Cisco Aguilar: 45% (+5)

Attorney General Aaron Ford continues to hold a solid lead, benefiting from his coalition of Blue Dog and New Democrat voters. Aguilar’s Progressive campaign has yet to resonate broadly though is gaining traction.

Oklahoma: Kirt Steadies Her Lead

Julia Kirt: 55% (-5)
Annie Menz: 45% (+5)

Julia Kirt remains the favorite in this race, appealing to moderate Democrats and independents alike. Annie Menz’s Progressive challenge has made traction outside urban centers though still requires effort to take the lead.

South Carolina: McLeod's Narrow Edge

Mia McLeod: 47% (-5)
Jermaine Johnson: 45% (+5)
Undecided: 8% (N/C)

Mia McLeod’s bipartisan and independent appeal keeps her in a slight lead, but Jermaine Johnson’s Progressive campaign has managed to close the gap, making this race one of the most unpredictable.

Tennessee: Clemmons Strengthens Position

John Ray Clemmons: 55% (-5)
Freddie O'Connell: 45% (+5)

John Ray Clemmons’ appeal to moderates and suburban voters continues to outpace Freddie O’Connell’s Progressive campaign.

Texas: Hidalgo vs. Alvarado - A Dead Heat

Lina Hidalgo: 51% (-4)
Carol Alvarado: 49% (+4)

Lina Hidalgo retains a razon thin lead but both candidates are locked in a fierce battle for Texas’ diverse Democratic base.

Takeaways

Progressive candidates have made gains in traditionally moderate states like Michigan and Georgia.
Blue Dog and New Democrat coalitions are proving resilient in rural and suburban areas, especially in states like Alabama and Arkansas.
Multi-candidate fields, as seen in Florida and Nebraska, create unique dynamics that could shape the general election narrative.
The New Democrats and Blue Dogs have seen massive decreased morale following national Blue Dogs and New Democrats failing to show up anywhere on the campaign trial. If they fail to show up again the Progressives could seize all of the momentum in the primaries.

The final stretch of these primaries will likely come down to turnout strategies, endorsements, and the ability to sway undecided voters in competitive states.

Vesica · December 28, 2024

Democratic Senate Primaries; Updated Polling

West Virginia: Goodwin Takes Commanding Lead

Amy Goodwin: 57% (+8)
William Wooten: 43% (-8)

Amy Goodwin, the mayor of Charleston, has taken and amassed a wide lead over State Supreme Court Justice William Wooten. Goodwin’s focus on economic redevelopment and infrastructure resonates with West Virginians, while Wooten’s judicial credentials have failed to close the gap, resulting in a collapse of Blue Dog support for Wooten.

South Dakota: Lesmeister Dominates

Oren Lesmeister: 59% (+7)
Shawn Bordeaux: 41% (-7)

State Representative Oren Lesmeister continues to outpace State Senator Shawn Bordeaux, leveraging strong rural appeal and a campaign focused on agricultural issues. Bordeaux’s support among urban Democrats hasn’t been enough to overcome Lesmeister’s statewide advantage.

Montana: Bullock in Command

Steve Bullock: 59% (+7)
Jon Tester: 41% (-7)

Former Governor Steve Bullock has expanded his lead over incumbent Senator Jon Tester. Bullock’s broader appeal and bipartisan record are resonating with Montana voters, while Tester’s focus on his Senate accomplishments struggles to energize the base.

Alabama: Reed Gains the Upper Hand

Steven Reed: 52% (+5)
Christopher England: 48% (-5)

Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed has edged ahead in a tight race against State Representative Christopher England. Reed’s focus on urban development and progressive policies has struck a chord with younger voters, while England’s legislative experience anchors his base.

Arkansas: Mahony Leads in Increasingly Close Race

Josh Mahony: 53% (-5)
Frank Scott Jr.: 47% (+5)

Businessman Josh Mahony maintains a slight lead over Little Rock Mayor Frank Scott Jr. Mahony’s emphasis on healthcare and economic reform resonates with rural voters, while Scott continues to perform well in urban areas.

Idaho: Rabe Pulls Ahead

Alison Rabe: 53% (+5)
Melissa Wintrow: 47% (-5)

State Senator Alison Rabe has overtaken State Representative Melissa Wintrow in a surprise shift. Rabe’s focus on progressive policy and outreach to younger voters is paying dividends.

Kentucky: Beshear Leads Comfortably

Andy Beshear: 55% (-5)
Craig Greenberg: 45% (+5)

Former Attorney General Andy Beshear’s national profile and strong approval ratings in Kentucky have positioned him as the frontrunner over Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg. His name recognition has anchored his support, though there are those who are wondering why Governor Eller didn't put himself forward.

Mississippi: Simmons Edges Ahead

Sarita Simmons: 51% (+5)
Jennifer Ryan Collins: 49% (-5)

In a close contest, State Senator Sarita Simmons has pulled ahead of activist Jennifer Ryan Collins. Simmons’ rural appeal and legislative experience are giving her a slight edge.

Nebraska: Gaylor Baird Surges

Leirion Gaylor Baird: 54% (+5)
Chris Beutler: 46% (-5)

Lincoln Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird has overtaken former Lincoln Mayor Chris Beutler. Her progressive policies and focus on urban renewal are energizing voters in key areas.

Oklahoma: Henry Remains Frontrunner

Brad Henry: 57% (-5)
Monroe Nichols: 43% (+5)

Former Governor Brad Henry continues to dominate, leveraging his established name recognition and moderate appeal. State Representative Monroe Nichols struggles to gain traction statewide.

Tennessee: Akbari Slightly Ahead

Raumesh Akbari: 51% (-4)
Antonio Parkinson: 49% (+4)

State Senator Raumesh Akbari maintains a narrow lead over Representative Antonio Parkinson in this razor-thin race. Both candidates have strong urban support, but Akbari’s broader coalition gives her a slight edge.

Texas: McConaughey and Nirenberg Neck-and-Neck

Matthew McConaughey: 35% (-5)
Ron Nirenberg: 35% (+5)
Gilberto Hinojosa: 25% (-5)
Undecided 5% (+5%)

Actor and activist Matthew McConaughey and San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg are locked in a tie, with both appealing to moderate and progressive voters. Texas Democratic Chair Gilberto Hinojosa has seen his support collapse amid the high-profile contest.

Wyoming: Barbuto Leads Decisively

Joseph Barbuto: 55% (-5)
Mike Yin: 45% (+5)

Wyoming Democratic Chair Joseph Barbuto has sustained his lead over State Representative Mike Yin. Barbuto’s appeal to moderate voters and party insiders has proven decisive, but there are vulnerabilites on the groud.

Takeaways

Progressives have made critical progress across the primary tract at the expense of both the New Democrats and Blue Dogs, including taking lead in states they normally wouldn't be competitive in.
New Democrats and Blue Dogs need to show up or they will find themselves without many candidates on the ballot.
Texas continues to be the most unpredictable contest, with high-profile candidates McConaughey and Nirenberg splitting the vote.

Vesica · December 28, 2024

Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: Updated Polling

Alaska: Gissel Leads in Crowded Field

Cathy Giessel: 41% (+4)
Nancy Dahlstrom: 31% (-2)
Click Bishop: 28% (-2)

Cathy Giessel, Majority Leader of the Alaska Senate, maintains her lead with broad appeal among moderates. Nancy Dahlstrom, a former lieutenant governor, is still in the race, while State Senator Click Bishop struggles to stay competitive despite strong conservative credentials.

Ohio: Tight Battle Between Carey and Husted

Jon Husted: 51% (-4)
Mike Carey: 49% (+4)

The Ohio primary is shaping up as a nail-biter, with Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted edging out Congressman Mike Carey. Husted’s established state leadership contrasts with Carey’s appeal to the GOP base, keeping this race too close to call.

South Carolina: Worthen Holds Narrow Lead

Brett Worthen: 50% (+3)
Alan Wilson: 47% (+1)
Undecided 3% (-4)

Brett Worthen, son of RNC Chairman Tom Worthen, continues to lead South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson in a highly competitive race. Worthen’s family connections and grassroots backing have propelled him forward, but Wilson’s reputation as a steadfast conservative keeps him close.

Michigan: Lightner Holds a Strong Lead

Sarah Lightner: 56% (-4)
Eileen Pugh: 44% (+4)

State Representative Sarah Lightner has taken a commanding lead over Congressman Eileen Pugh. Lightner’s campaign, focused on infrastructure and economic reform, resonates with voters, while Pugh’s focus on social conservatism appears to have limited her reach.

Alabama: Ainsworth Retains Slight Lead

Will Ainsworth: 53% (+1)
Rick Pate: 47% (-1)

Lieutenant Governor Will Ainsworth has gained slight momentum, pulling slightly further ahead of Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate. Ainsworth’s statewide name recognition and policy experience give him an edge in this hard-fought contest.

Kansas: Estes Leads Schmidt

Ron Estes: 56% (+1)
Vicki Schmidt: 44% (-1)

Congressman Ron Estes has widened his lead over Kansas Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt.

Rhode Island: Kalus in Control

Ashley Kalus: 55% (N/C)
Jessica de la Cruz: 45% (N?C)

Businesswoman Ashley Kalus has sustained her lead over State Senator Jessica de la Cruz. Kalus’s outsider appeal and focus on economic reform have won over moderates and independents in the deep-blue state.

South Dakota: Jackley Holds Lead

Marty Jackley: 55% (N/C)
Larry Rhoden: 45% (N/C)

Attorney General Marty Jackley has solidified his position over Lieutenant Governor Larry Rhoden. Jackley’s focus on law and order policies has resonated with voters across South Dakota.

Tennessee: Jacobs and Burchett in Deadlock

Glenn Jacobs: 50% (+0)
Tim Burchett: 50% (+0)

Tennessee remains one of the most contentious races, with Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs and Congressman Tim Burchett locked in a statistical tie. Jacobs’s populist approach contrasts with Burchett’s legislative experience, creating a fascinating ideological battle.

Wisconsin: Binsfeld Holds Lead

Amy Binsfeld: 53% (-2)
Bryan Steil: 47% (+2)

State Assembly member Amy Binsfeld is still ahead of Congressman Bryan Steil. Binsfeld’s campaign highlights grassroots issues and pragmatic solutions, appealing to voters across Wisconsin, while Steil’s more traditional conservative platform appears to have be slowly gaining momentum.

Takeaways

Frontrunners Solidify: Marty Jackley, Ashley Kalus, and Sarah Lightner continue to strengthen their leads with decisive campaigning.
Close Races Persist: Ohio, South Carolina, and Tennessee remain hotly contested battlegrounds, with no clear winners emerging yet.
There is a fight for the soul of the Republican Party with all three factions heavily active in the Primaries.

Vesica · December 28, 2024

Republican Senate Primaries; Updated Polling

Minnesota: Birk Secures Commanding Lead

Matt Birk: 57% (+4)
Scott Jensen: 43% (-4)

Former NFL player Matt Birk has widened his lead over State Senator Scott Jensen. Birk’s ability to connect with both suburban moderates and rural conservatives has solidified his position, while Jensen’s campaign has struggled to recapture momentum.

Idaho: Labrador Maintains Edge Ahead

Raúl Labrador: 51% (-4)
Debbie Critchfield: 49% (+4)

Idaho’s primary is a razor-thin contest as former Congressman Raúl Labrador edges ahead of State Superintendent Debbie Critchfield.

New Mexico: Harrell Builds Momentum

Yvette Herrell: 54% (+2)
Richard Berry: 46% (-2)

Former Congresswoman Yvette Herrell has widened her slight lead over Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry.

West Virginia: Warner Takes Narrow Lead

Mac Warner: 50% (-2)
JB McCuskey: 50% (+2)

West Virginia’s Secretary of State Mac Warner and State Auditor JB McCuskey are in a true knife fight. This, like Tennessee, will come down to the wire.

Vesica · December 28, 2024

2026 House Primaries Updated Polls
Analysis of specific, notable House primaries will come later depending on time. Races are characterized as Tossup, Lean, or Solid in favor of a candidate.
					REPUBLICAN	Candidate 1	Candidate 2	Candidate 3	Characterization
California 48	Marie Waldron	Carl DeMaio		Toss Up
Florida 4	Aaron Bean	Lenny Curry		Tossup
Maryland 1	Dan Cox	Christopher Bruneau		Likely Cox
Mississippi 3	Michael Guest	Shad White		Toss Up
Montana 2	Troy Downing	Sam Granger		Lean Granger
New York 18	Colin Schmitt	Alison Esposito		Likely Esposito
Texas 2	Daniel Crenshaw	Tony Buzbee		Likely Buzbee
Texas 23	Tony Gonzales	Brandon Herrera		Lean Gonzales
Virginia 9	Wren Williams	Joseph McNamara		Tossup
Washington 4	Jerrod Sessler	Jeremie Dufault	Tiffany Smiley	Likely Smiley

DEMOCRATS	Candidate 1	Candidate 2	Candidate 3	Characterization
Maryland 5	Steny Hoyer	Katherine Tai		Likely Tai
Massachusetts 8	Stephen Lynch	Brandy Fluker Oakley		Likely Lynch
New York 7	Carmen De La Rosa	Kristen Gonzalez		Likely Gonzalez
New York 19	Josh Riley	Michael Donnelly		Likely Riley
Rhode Island 1	Gabe Amo	Sam Bell		Lean Bell
Rhode Island 2	Seth Magaziner	Victoria Gu		Likely Magaziner

Vesica · January 2

Gubernational Polling (Pre-Election)

Analysis is included in those races worth noting or not Safe

Alabama - Safe Republican

Republican: Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth – 57%
Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton – 38%
Undecided: 5%

Alaska - Leaning Democrat

Republican: State Senate Majority Leader Cathy Giessel – 46%
Democrat: Former U.S. Senator Mark Begich – 48%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: Alaska's extremely moderate state wide political leanings make this one of the most watched races of the cycle, with both Cathy Giessel and Mark Begich being extremely moderate candidate and both with state wide appeal. Giessel is hampered by the extended primary she had to go through for the nomination.

Arizona - Leaning Democrat

Republican: Sheriff Mark Lamb – 47%
Democrat: Governor Katie Hobbs – 48%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: Republican investments in the state, and Katie Hobbs struggling popularity in this still red leaning state are giving fresh momentum to Sheriff Mark Lamb. Hobbs needs extensive investment if the Democrats hope to hold this south western seat, with Hobbs currently only in the lead due to her incumbency advantage.

Arkansas - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders – 63%
Democrat: Former U.S. Senator Mark Pryor – 35%
Undecided: 4%

California - Safe Democrat

Republican: Orange County Supervisor Janet Njuyen – 34%
Democrat: State Superintendent Miranda Owens – 60%
Undecided: 6%

Colorado - Safe Democrat

Republican: Former NFL player John Elway – 43%
Democrat: Congressman Joe Neguse – 51%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: Despite John Elway's star power, and personal recruitment by President Kyle Van Horn, Colorado is still a reliable blue state, and it would take substanial amounts of time and investment to get Elway into the race.

Connecticut - Safe Democrat

Republican: State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides – 42%
Democrat: State Comptroller Sean Scanlon – 52%
Undecided: 6%

Florida - Likely Republican

Republican: State Attorney General Ashley Moody – 50%
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Val Demings – 44%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: Former Congresswoman Val Demings is coming off of a bruising and crowded Primary, against the popular State Attorney General with the personal endorsement of outgoing Governor Ron DeSantis. While not impossible to flip, Moody has a commanding lead going into the eleciton.

Georgia - Leaning Republican

Republican: State Attorney General Chris Carr – 49%
Democrat: Congresswoman Nikema Williams – 46%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: Like Demings in Florida, Congresswoman Nikema Williams came out of a length primary, that she barely won, while popular state Attorney General Chris Carr had the field entirely to himself. Williams is anchored by her support in and around Atlanta, but Carr starts with a comfortable lead.

Hawaii - Safe Democrat

Republican: Former Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona – 40%
Democrat: Governor Josh Green – 56%
Undecided: 4%

Idaho - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Brad Little – 63%
Democrat: State Representative Paulette Jordan – 33%
Undecided: 4%

Illinois - Safe Democrat

Republican: Congressman Mike Bost – 40%
Democrat: Governor JB Pritzker – 56%
Undecided: 4%

Iowa - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Amy Sinclair – 52%
Democrat: Former State Senator Rita Hart – 44%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: A missed chance at a sleeper race for the Democrats, former Senate President Amy Sinclair became Governor after Governor Reynolds was appointed to the federal Cabinet, leaving her without an incumbency advantage. All factions of the GOP quickly rallying around her however have given her a comfortable position to work from.

Kansas - Likely Republican

Republican: Congressman Ron Estes – 49%
Democrat: Lieutenant Governor David Tolland – 45%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: In a potential sleeper race, the Democrats choice to put forward Lieutenant Governor David Tolland is giving them the best chance to hold the Governor's Mansion, but Congressman Ron Estes is going into the election with a firm and comfortable advantage.

Maine - Likely Democrat

Republican: State Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart – 45%
Democrat: State Speaker Anne Scarlett – 50%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: The Democrats are keen to hold the Governor's Mansion here in Maine, and Speaker of the State House of Representatives Anne Scarlett appears to have the best chance to do it for them, with a comfortable lead over State Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart. If elected, Scarlett would be the youngest Governor in Maine's history.

Maryland - Safe Democrat

Republican: Former Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford – 44%
Democrat: Governor Wes Moore – 52%
Undecided: 4%

Massachusetts - Safe Democrat

Republican: Chris Doughty – 38%
Democrat: Governor Maura Healey – 58%
Undecided: 4%

Michigan - Likely Democrat

Republican: State Representative Sarah Lightner – 44%
Democrat: State Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow – 50%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: The Democrats are likely to hold this seat, but that it's in play is a story in of itself, after State Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow beat out Lieutenant Governor Gilchrist for the Democratic nomination. She is aided by the long primary that State Representative Sarah Lightner went through to grab the nomination over Congresswoman Eileen Pugh.

Minnesota - Likely Democrat

Republican: Congressman Pete Stauber – 44%
Democrat: State Senate Majority Leader Tiffany Kristiansen – 50%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: Personally endorsed by outgoing Governor Tim Walz, Minnesota's Senate Majority Leader is in a comfortable position to hold the Governor's Mansion, though the rising influence of the Blue Dogs in her state, have allowed the race to come into play.

Nebraska - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Jim Pillen – 60%
Democrat: Jane Kleeb – 36%
Undecided: 4%

Nevada - Leaning Republican

Republican: Governor Joe Lombardo – 49%
Democrat: State Secretary Cisco Aguilar – 46%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Governor Lombardo is facing a stiff challenge from his Democratic Secretary of State in Cisco Aguilar. Aguilar had to go through a long and punishing primary with State Attorney General Aaron Ford, and there are rumbling that is Ford had been nominated the party would have been in an even better position, considering Aguilar's Progressive credentials and the more moderate leaning of the State Democratic party.

New Hampshire - Likely Republican

Republican: Governor Kelly Ayotte – 50%
Democrat: Senator Maggie Hassan – 46%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: The extremely popular Governor of New Hampshire is up against her toughest opponent in Senator Maggie Hassan, who likely gives the Democrats their best shot at taking back the Governor's Mansion. Governor Ayotte has a comfortable leading going into the election, but considering how well financed both of these campaigns are, this will be one to watch until the end.

New Mexico - Safe Democrat

Republican: Sharon Clahchischilliage – 41%
Democrat: Mayor Tim Keller – 53%
Undecided: 6%

New York - Leaning Democrat

Republican: Former NFL player Marcus Grant – 46%
Democrat: Congressman Ritchie Torres – 48%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: In what would normally be a given for the Democrats, considering New York's status as a Democratic stronghold, Republican Marcus Grant is starting at a much stronger position due to his moderate leanings and influence and star power in the state. Congressman Torres is also fresh off a brutal primary where he supplanted now-outgoing Governor Kathy Hochul, for which her New Democratic supporters have not forgiven Torres. This will be the race to watch.

Ohio - Leaning Republican

Republican: Congressman Mike Carey – 47%
Democrat: Justice Jennifer Brunner – 46%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: Another normally given to the party in charge, normally the Republicans, the long and grinding primary between Congressman Mike Carey and Lieutenant Governor John Husted, has left the Republican nominee more vulnerable then the Republicans would be normally in rapidly reddening Ohio. The Republicans will need to put all hands on deck here, and reassured the displaced still more moderate Republicans in the state who are just as angry as the Democrats in New York.

Oklahoma - Safe Republican

Republican: Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine – 58%
Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Julia Kirt – 36%
Undecided: 6%

Oregon - Safe Democrat

Republican: Former Congressman Greg Walden – 43%
Democrat: Governor Tina Kotek – 52%
Undecided: 4%

Pennsylvania - Safe Democrat

Republican: Congressman Lloyd Smucker – 41%
Democrat: Governor Josh Shapiro – 55%
Undecided: 4%

Rhode Island - Safe Democrat

Republican: Ashley Kalus – 45%
Democrat: Governor Dan McKee – 51%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina - Safe Republican

Republican: Brett Worthen – 51%
Democrat: Independent State Senator Mia McLeod – 43%
Undecided: 6%

South Dakota - Safe Republican

Republican: State Attorney General Marty Jackley – 60%
Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Reynold Nesiba – 34%
Undecided: 6%

Tennessee - Safe Republican

Republican: Mayor Glenn Jacobs – 58%
Democrat: State Representative John Ray Clemmons – 36%
Undecided: 6%

Texas - Likely Republican

Republican: State Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham – 49%
Democrat: Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo – 45%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: A surprising race to watch, more attributed to Texas rapidly diversifying demographics then anything else, Dawn Buckingham still has a comfortable advantage going into the election, with County Judge Hidalgo being a darkhorse candidate and making this a sleeper race to keep an eye on, though many Democrats are wondering why Matthew McConaughey, who is currently in a drawn out primary for the Democratic nomination for Senate, wasn't push here.

Vermont - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Phil Scott – 65%
Democrat: Mayor Miro Weinberger – 31%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: In deeply blue Vermont, Republican Governor Phil Scott continues his legacy as the single most popular Governor in the United States, and will likely remain Governor as long as he wants the job.

Wisconsin - Likely Democrat

Republican: Congressman Bryan Steil – 45%
Democrat: Governor Tony Evers – 50%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: Congressman Steil is putting up a strong challenge to Governor Tony Evers, but the Governor is coming in with a comfortable lead and the incumbency advantage.

Wyoming - Safe Republican

Republican: Congresswoman Harriet Hageman – 63%
Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Chris Rothfuss – 31%
Undecided: 6%

Vesica · January 2

Senate Polling (Pre-Election)

Analysis included in interesting races & those not deemed Safe

Alabama - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Tommy Tuberville – 58%
Democrat: Mayor Steven Reed – 38%
Undecided: 4%

Alaska - Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Dan Sullivan – 51%
Democrat: Congresswoman Mary Peltola – 45%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Senator Sullivan's incumbency advantage gives him an extremely comfortable lead going into the election. There are some murmuring from Alaska Democrats why Peltola wasn't tapped for the Democratic Nomination for Governor. As it stands, there is an extremely outside chance of Peltola coming out on top, but it's currently Sullivan's to lose.

Arkansas - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Tom Cotton – 62%
Democrat: Josh Mahony – 34%
Undecided: 4%

Colorado - Safe Democrat

Republican: Congressman Greg Lopez – 42%
Democrat: Senator Rafael Coleman – 54%
Undecided: 4%

Delaware - Safe Democrat

Republican: State House Minority Leader Mike Ramone – 36%
Democrat: Senator Chris Coons – 60%
Undecided: 4%

Florida - Leaning Republican

Republican: Senator Byron Donalds – 48%
Democrat: Mayor Daniella Levine Cava – 46%
Undecided: 6%

Analyis: The critical piece of information here is Donalds lack of incumbency and how long he's been on the job, and the relative popularity of Levine Cava. This could turn into a darkhorse race if the Democrats play their cards right and the Republicans shouldn't take it for granted.

Georgia - Leaning Democrat

Republican: Governor Brian Kemp – 48%
Democrat: Senator Jon Ossoff – 49%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: This one will be a brutal fight to the end and may end up being the closest race of the cycle. The Republicans could not have picked a stronger challenger to take on the popular Democratic incumbent in this extremely purple state.

Idaho - Safe Republican

Republican: Debbie Critchfield – 60%
Democrat: Alison Rabe – 36%
Undecided: 4%

Illinois - Safe Democrat

Republican: Congressman Rodney Davis – 42%
Democrat: Congressman Elliot Pierce – 52%
Undecided: 6%

Iowa - Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Joni Ernst – 50%
Democrat: Eleanor Miller – 45%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: Senator Ernest's incumbency gives her a comfortable advantage going into November. Iowa Democrats are puzzled why Rob Sand wasn't pushed here, if not for the Governor's Race.

Kansas - Leaning Republican

Republican: Senator Roger Marshall – 48%
Democrat: Governor Laura Kelly – 46%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: If the Democrats ever dreamed of a modern day blue Kansas, popular outgoing Governor Laura Kelly will give them the best chance at flipping this long held Republican seat. The Republicans can not afford to ignore Kansas, espceially considering Governor Kelly is coming into the election with brimming warchest.

Kentucky - Likely Republican

Republican: State Senator Phillip Wheeler – 49%
Democrat: Former Attorney General Andy Beshear – 45%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: With the luck the last time this will ever have to be mentioned, State Democrats have been asking pointed questions why the son of the former Governor is the Democratic nominee and not the currently still popular Governor Eller. Still, Beshear is still relatively popular, even being out of office for as long as he is, and is giving the Democrats a fighting chance.

Louisiana - Leaning Republican

Republican: Senator Billy Nungesser – 49%
Democrat: Former Governor John Bel Edwards – 47%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: The popularity of the former Governor, and Nungesser's lack of incumbency is placing the Bayou State back in play for potentially the last time (Edwards being the last Democrat to pull off a state wide win). This will be a sleeper race to watch.

Maine - Likely Democrat

Republican: Joanna Snowe – 46%
Democrat: Governor Janet Mills – 50%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: The Democrats are favored to win this race, but the daughter of the former Senator Snowe is keeping the Republican in the game. This seat is seen as the most likely pick up for the Democrats, and both they and the Republicans know it.

Massachusetts - Likely Democrat

Republican: Former Governor Charlie Baker – 45%
Democrat: Mayor Michelle Wu – 49%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: A Red Massachusetts isn't out of the realm of possibility, not with the popular former Governor on the ballot for the Republicans. Their odds would have been even better if Senator Baudelaire had attempt to go for a re-election, but Mayor Michelle Wu has given the Democrats the best chance at holding the state blue.

Michigan - Likely Democrat

Republican: William Anholts – 45%
Democrat: Governor Gretchen Whitmer – 51%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Like in Alaska for Dan Sullivan, this is Governor Whitmer's race to lose. The former Trump era Secretary of Commerce, William Anholts, is going to put up a respectable showing, but unless something major happens, the Democrats will hold this seat.

Minnesota - Safe Democrat

Republican: Matt Birk – 42%
Democrat: Governor Tim Walz – 54%
Undecided: 4%

Mississippi - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith – 56%
Democrat: Jennifer Riley Collins – 39%
Undecided: 5%

Montana - Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Wyatt Granger – 50%
Democrat: Former Governor Steve Bullock – 45%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: State Democrats are asking questions why the recently defeated Jon Tester is not on the ballot over former Governor Bullock, even if only because he is more fresh in the people's minds. To the credit of Senator Granger is the absolute favorite to win the election, though has been hampered by his picking a fight with the Covenant of the New Dawn, who hold a not small amount of influence in the state, and his spearheaded Accountability Commission nailing the Republican Deputy Attorney General to the wall. This is still his race to lose, but it didn't need to be.

Nebraska - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Pete Ricketts – 61%
Democrat: Mayor Leirion Gaylor Baird – 35%
Undecided: 4%

New Hampshire - Leaning Democrat

Republican: Former Governor Chris Sununu – 47%
Democrat: Senator Jeanne Shaheen – 49%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Another brutal race to the finish, the extremely popular former Governor is going up against the equally popular incumbent Senator. Senator Shaheen's incumbency gives her the edge here, but the Republicans are flush with cash and will likely be trying to make this another potential pick up along with Georgia.

New Jersey - Safe Democrat

Republican: Curtis Bashaw – 38%
Democrat: Senator Cory Booker – 59%
Undecided: 3%

Analyis: Despite the Republican Party of New Jersey being the single wealthiest state level party in the United States, the popularity of Cory Booker is going to keep this firmly in the Democrats camp.

New Mexico - Safe Democrat

Republican: Yvette Herrell – 44%
Democrat: Senator Ben Ray Luján – 53%
Undecided: 3%

North Carolina - Leaning Republican

Republican: Marjorie Ashcroft – 49%
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper – 47%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Ashcroft's re-election was as certain as the setting sun several months ago, until she needed to step down as Chair of the Freedom Caucus and lost media visibility. She is also up against the best the Democrats could come up with, in former Governor Roy Cooper. This is another potential Democrats pick up, and a seat the Republicans will absolutely want to hold, to sustain their Southern Red Wall.

Oklahoma - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Markwayne Mullin – 61%
Democrat: Former Governor Brad Henry – 37%
Undecided: 2%

Oregon - Safe Democrat

Republican: Christine Drazan – 40%
Democrat: Senator Jeff Merkley – 56%
Undecided: 4%

Rhode Island - Safe Democrat

Republican: Aaron Guckian – 39%
Democrat: Senator Jack Reed – 57%
Undecided: 4%

South Carolina - Safe Republican

Republican: Lindsey Graham – 53%
Democrat: Deon Tedder – 42%
Undecided: 5%

South Dakota - Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Kristi Noem – 63%
Democrat: Oren Lesmeister – 34%
Undecided: 3%

Tennessee - Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Bill Hagerty – 57%
Democrat: Antonio Parkinson – 39%
Undecided: 4%

Texas (Runoff Scenarios)

Abbott vs. McConaughey - Leaning Republican

Republican: Governor Greg Abbott – 48%
Democrat: Matthew McConaughey – 46%
Undecided: 6%

Abbott vs. Nirenberg - Likely Republican

Republican: Governor Greg Abbott – 50%
Democrat: Mayor Ron Nirenberg – 44%
Undecided: 6%

Analysis: The Republicans picked their best possible candidate in Governor Greg Abbott for whomever the Democrats ultimately tap into. Regardless of who wins, McConaughey or Nirenberg, they'll be coming off up a brutal primary, that was forced to a run off, and then need to pick up the pieces to jump straight into the General. The New Democrat backed McConaughey is still the better choice to take on Abbott, but Nirenberg's Progressive backers have been more motivated to get involved. State Democrats are still bemoaning that McConaughey is not taking on Dawn Buckingham for the Governor's race, where polling had him ahead, but that is the road not travelled.

Virginia - Likely Democrat

Republican: Winsome Earle-Sears – 46%
Democrat: Senator Mark Warner – 51%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Former Governor Earle-Sears barely lost the Virginia Gubernational Race last year, and is still a viable political force in Virginia. Warner is the clear favorite to win this, but campaigns matters, and this could be a potential sleeper race to watch.

West Virginia - Safe Republican

Republican: JB McCuskey – 60%
Democrat: Ashley Shuler Goodwin – 35%
Undecided: 5%

Wyoming - Safe Republican

Republican: Chuck Gray – 65%
Democrat: Joseph Barbuto – 31%
Undecided: 4%

Edited January 2 by Vesica

Brink · January 2

State of 2026 House Races, Post Primary
Seats not in this list are generally considered to be safe. Exceptions may apply however depending on how the election cycle goes. Seats that are characterized as "likely" can and will move off the list depending on how the election cycle goes.

Tossup (8)
Alaska-At Large	Scott Kawasaki	Mike Dunleavy
Arizona-6	Kirsten Engel (i)	Juan Ciscomani
California-13	Adam Gray (i)	John Duarte
California-27	Mike Garcia (i)	George Whitesides
California-45	Michelle Steel (i)	Derek Tran
Colorado-8	Yadira Caraveo (i)	Gabe Evans
Iowa-1	Mariannette Miller-Meeks (i)	Zach Wahls
Maine-2	Jared Golden (i)	Austin Theriault
Ohio-9	Michele Grim	Theresa Gavarone

Tilt Democratic (11)
Arizona-1	Amish Shah (i)	David Schweikert
Michigan-10	Carl Marlinga (i)	Candice Miller
New Jersey-9	Nellie Pou (i)	Billy Prempeh
New Mexico-2	Gabriel Vasquez (i)	Yvette Herrell
New York-4	Laura Gillen (i)	Anthony D'Esposito
New York-19	Josh Riley (i)	Marc Molinaro
North Carolina-1	Don Davis (i)	Keith Stone
Oregon-5	Janelle Bynum (i)	Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Pennsylvania-7	Susan Wild (i)	Ryan Mackenzie
Pennsylvania-8	Matt Cartwright (i)	Rob Bresnahan
Virginia-7	Eugene Vindman (i)	Cameron Hamilton

Lean Democratic (4)
California-26	Monique Limón	Fadde Mikhail
Florida-22	Lori Berman	Dan Franzese
Massachusetts-9	Julian Cyr	Dan Sullivan
New Mexico-3	Amanda Chavez	Sharon Clahchischilliage

Likely Democratic (13)
Arizona-7	Laura Conover	Joshua Pembleton
California-50	Akilah Weber	Kevin Faulconer
Colorado-2	Ralphangel Coleman	Marshall Dawson
Connecticut-2	Mae Fleer	Jayme Stevenson
Connecticut-3	Jennifer Roumjong Lewis	Margaret Streicker
Hawaii-1	Mālie Keahi	Bob McDermott
Maryland-5	Katherine Tai	Chris Palombi
Massachusetts-1	Jacob Oliveira	Dean Martilli
Mississippi-2	Sarita Simmons	Andrew Smith
Missouri-5	Greg Razer	Sean Smith
Ohio-3	Andrew Ginther	Lee Stahley
South Carolina-6	Tameika Isaac Devine	Duke Buckner
Virginia-3	Angelia Williams Graves	Ted Engquist

Tilt Republican (9)
California-41	Ken Calvert (i)	V. Manuel Perez
Iowa-3	Zach Nunn (i)	Janet Petersen
Nebraska-2	Don Bacon (i)	Machaela Cavanaugh
New Jersey-7	Thomas Kean Jr. (i)	Mitchelle Drulis
New York-17	Mike Lawler (i)	Dana Levenberg
Pennsylvania-10	Scott Perry (i)	Patty Kim
Virginia-2	Jennifer Kiggans (i)	Aaron Rouse
Washington-4	Tiffany Smiley	Ana Ruiz Kennedy
Wisconsin-3	Derrick Van Orden (i)	Jodi Emerson

Lean Republican (5)
Colorado-3	Jeff Hurd (i)	Adam Frisch
Colorado-4	Lauren Boebert (i)	Amy Padden
Montana-1	Ryan Zinke (i)	Ellie Boldman
New York-1	Nick LaLota (i)	Steve Stern
Wisconsin-1	Samantha Kirkman	Greta Neubauer

Likely Republican (16)
California-48	Carl DeMaio	Monica Montgomery Steppe
Florida-1	Matt Gaetz (i)	Gay Valimont
Florida-11	Grady Judd	Leonard Spencer
Georgia-1	Harold Melton	Van R. Johnson
Idaho-2	Kevin Cook	Lauren McLean
Kansas-4	Susan Wagle	KC Ohaebosim
Kentucky-5	Adam Bowling	Ashley Tackett Laferty
Maryland-1	Dan Cox	Andre Johnson Jr.
Michigan-1	Ed McBroom	Jessica Hanley
Montana-2	Sam Granger	Sharon Stewart-Peregoy
Ohio-14	Mike Loychik	Anthony Traficanti
Oklahoma-5	David Holt	Carri Hicks
South Carolina-5	Tommy Pope	John Richard C. King
Texas-2	Tony Buzbee	Robin Fulford
Texas-3	Angela Paton	Sandeep Srivastava
Virginia-9	Wren Williams	Sam Rasoul

Total	67
Republicans	33
Democrats	34

Brink · January 2

Update: Both California-5 and New York-21 have been added to Likely Republican.

((OOC: these were close special elections in 2025 which I hadn't accounted for while looking at 2024 results))

Edited January 2 by Brink

Vesica · January 3

State of State Party Finances Pre-Election

Alabama	0	2	GOP +2
Alaska	19	16	DNC +3
Arizona	12	15	GOP +3
California	27	25	DNC +2
Connecticut	0	3	GOP +3
Colorado	15	15	Even
Florida	23	15	DNC +8
Georgia	33	36	GOP +3
Hawaii	12	0	DNC +12
Illinois	6	0	DNC +6
Iowa	11	12	GOP +1
Kansas	18	15	DNC +3
Kentucky	0	3	GOP +3
Louisiana	6	12	GOP +6
Maine	20	17	DNC +3
Massachusetts	4	13	GOP +9
Michigan	27	39	GOP +12
Minnesota	7	8	GOP +1
Montana	6	15	GOP +9
Nebraska	0	2	GOP +2
New Hampshire	21	17	DNC +4
New Jersey	18	37	GOP +19
New Mexico	16	12	DNC +4
New York	41	31	DNC +10
Nevada	6	17	GOP +11
North Carolina	28	26	DNC +2
Ohio	12	18	GOP +6
Oregon	6	0	DNC +6
Pennsylvania	12	13	GOP +1
Rhode Island	6	3	DNC +3
South Carolina	9	18	GOP +9
Texas	30	19	DNC +11
Vermont	0	4	GOP +4
Virginia	12	18	GOP +6
Washington	12	0	DNC +12
Wisconsin	16	24	GOP +8

The Republicans have fundraising advantages in Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin

The Democrats have fundraising advantages in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas and Washington.

The Parties are even in Colorado.

The state parties in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, the GOP in Montana, the GOP in New Jersey and the DNC in New Mexico are all reporting that they are fully funded for the coming election to spend at all levels.

Vesica · January 3

Shifting Faction Dynamics Poise Parties for Transformation Ahead of 2026 Midterms

As the 2026 midterms approach, the internal dynamics of both Republican and Democratic parties are undergoing significant transformations across several key states. Factional shifts are poised to reshape the political landscapes of California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, reflecting evolving voter priorities and intra-party strategies.

California: Progressives Regain Control from New Democrats

In California, the Progressive faction has reclaimed control of the state party from the New Democrats. After years of tension over policy priorities, the Progressives successfully rallied support in key urban and suburban areas, leveraging their message of climate action, housing reform, and expanded healthcare access. With several high-profile Progressive candidates winning primaries, the faction is expected to dominate the Democratic agenda post-midterms.

This shift underscores a growing divide within the Democratic Party nationwide, as Progressives push for bolder policies in states long governed by centrist Democrats.

Florida: Freedom Caucus Solidifies Control Over Study Committee

In Florida, the Freedom Caucus has eclipsed the Study Committee in influence, marking a decisive rightward shift within the state’s Republican Party. Known for their staunch conservative positions on gun rights, education, and immigration, the Freedom Caucus capitalized on a wave of grassroots support to secure nominations for key statewide and legislative races.

With the Freedom Caucus’s ascendancy, Florida Republicans are expected to push policies that align more closely with the national hard-right movement, further solidifying the state’s reputation as a conservative stronghold.

Illinois: Freedom Caucus Topples Study Committee Leadership

In a surprising development, the Freedom Caucus has taken control of the Republican Party in Illinois, ousting the more centrist Study Committee faction. This shift signals a departure from the state’s traditionally moderate Republican leadership, which had focused on balancing fiscal conservatism with pragmatic governance.

The Freedom Caucus’s rise has been attributed to growing rural and suburban discontent with perceived overreach by Democratic leaders in Chicago, giving the faction a platform to advance their agenda on issues such as Second Amendment rights and parental control in education.

Michigan: Progressives Wrest Control from New Democrats

Michigan’s Democratic Party has seen a resurgence of the Progressive faction, which successfully unseated the New Democrats from leadership. With the state playing a pivotal role in national elections, this shift is significant.

Progressives emphasized economic justice, environmental protections, and union rights in their campaign messaging, resonating with Michigan’s diverse electorate. As the faction’s candidates prepare for the general election, their leadership could redefine Democratic strategies in the Midwest.

Minnesota: Progressives Oust Blue Dogs

Minnesota’s Progressives have regained control of the state’s Democratic Party from the Blue Dogs. This marks a return to a more liberal platform focused on equity, healthcare reform, and environmental initiatives. The Blue Dogs, traditionally strong in rural districts, struggled to counter the urban and youth-driven surge that propelled Progressives back into prominence.

This shift is expected to have a profound impact on the party’s approach to statewide races, with an emphasis on policies that appeal to the state’s growing urban base.

South Carolina: Freedom Caucus Edges Out Study Committee

In South Carolina, the Freedom Caucus has overtaken the Study Committee in their shared influence over the Republican Party. This development reflects a broader national trend of rising hard-right conservative activism within traditionally Republican states.

The Freedom Caucus’s success stems from their ability to mobilize rural voters and capitalize on cultural issues, such as education and abortion. Their growing dominance will likely steer the state party toward more confrontational and ideologically driven policies.

South Dakota: Study Committee Surpasses Freedom Caucus

South Dakota’s Republican Party is witnessing a shift in the opposite direction, with the Study Committee overtaking the Freedom Caucus in influence. This realignment suggests a desire for more pragmatic leadership focused on traditional conservative principles rather than the confrontational politics often associated with the Freedom Caucus.

The Study Committee’s resurgence is expected to lead to a more measured legislative agenda, emphasizing fiscal responsibility and economic development over cultural flashpoints.

Wisconsin: Shared Influence Between Freedom Caucus and Study Committee

In Wisconsin, the Republican Party’s leadership is now evenly split between the Freedom Caucus and the Study Committee. This delicate balance reflects a state party trying to navigate between the hard-right conservatism of rural districts and the more moderate preferences of suburban and urban voters.

The power-sharing dynamic could result in a legislative agenda that attempts to bridge these divides, though it may also lead to internal gridlock as the factions vie for control.

Implications for the 2026 Midterms

These shifting factional dynamics are set to influence not only state-level governance but also national strategies in the 2026 midterms. Progressive gains in traditionally centrist Democratic states like California and Michigan could energize the party’s liberal base, while the Freedom Caucus’s ascendancy in key Republican states signals a continued push toward ideological purity on the right.

As these factions consolidate power, their success in the general election will likely determine whether their agendas become central to their respective parties’ futures.

Vesica · January 6

Gubernational Polling (Post Round 1)

Analysis is included for the movements. Safe Races Pre-Election have been removed

Alaska - Leaning Democrat

Republican: State Senate Majority Leader Cathy Giessel – 47%
Democrat: Former U.S. Senator Mark Begich – 49%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: The fight for Alaska's Governor's Mansion is a knife fight and will be so until the end. A strong stump for Giessel has helped even out the impact of the Democratic Ad campaign. This race will continue until the end.

**Arizona - From Lean Democrat to** Toss Up

Republican: Sheriff Mark Lamb – 49%
Democrat: Governor Katie Hobbs – 49.5%
Undecided: 2.5%

Analysis: Despite a massive cash advantage on the ground by the Republicans, the Democrats have fought back with effective ground effort by Governor Hobbs and Senator Kelly, along with a substanial AD buy has allowed Hobbs to stay in a narrow lead. The margins are extremely narrow and this will be a race to watch until the end.

**Florida - From Likely Republican to Safe Republican**

Republican: State Attorney General Ashley Moody – 52%
Democrat: Former Congresswoman Val Demings – 45%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: A massive Republican infrastructure blitz has allowed State Attorney General Ashley Moody amass a seven point lead and taken the race for the Florida Governor's Mansion out of play.

**Georgia - From Leaning Republican to Toss Up**

Republican: State Attorney General Chris Carr – 50%
Democrat: Congresswoman Nikema Williams – 49%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Without a doubt the single most targeted State in the election, Georgia recieved lavish spending from both the Democrats and the Republicans. Nikema Williams, Senator Ossoff himself who is up in his own tough election bid, and Democratic Presidential Nominee Senator Hannah Kakonia showed up, giving the Governor a wide swath of a vast majority of the party. This was matched by a double dose of Republican ADs and superior Republican infrastructure spending. This will be another brutal battle to the finish.

**Kansas - From Likely Republican to Toss Up**

Republican: Congressman Ron Estes – 49.5%
Democrat: Lieutenant Governor David Tolland – 48.5%
Undecided: 2%

Analysis: The Democrats matched the Republicans dollar for dollar and put AD buys and a rally in the state that has allowed popular Lieutenant Governor Tolland to close the gap. It was said that Tolland gave the best chance for the Democrats to keep this Governor's Mansion blue in this extremely ruby red state, but Estes is not going to go down without a fight, espceially if the Republicans put their focus back on Kansas.

**Maine - From Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat**

Republican: State Senate Minority Leader Trey Stewart – 46%
Democrat: State Speaker Anne Scarlett – 52%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Even funding from both parties and an effective AD in the state have allowed Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives to sow up enough support that she will likely be the next Governor of Maine.

Michigan - Likely Democrat

Republican: State Representative Sarah Lightner – 47%
Democrat: State Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow – 51%
Undecided: 4%

Analysis: Superior Republican spending the state has allowed State Representative Sarah Lightner to narrow the gap, but State Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow is now above 50%. Unless the GOP throws everything into Michigan, the momentum is securely in McMorrow's favor.

Minnesota - Likely Democrat

Republican: Congressman Pete Stauber – 45%
Democrat: State Senate Majority Leader Tiffany Kristiansen – 50%
Undecided: 5%

Analysis: State Senate Majority Leader Tiffany Kristiansen's election to the Governor was almost guaranteed until she took a black eye from her failed Ban Assault weapons ban which has allowed the gap between herself and Stauber to narrow. Kristiansen's still the favorite, to win, but her path to victory isn't as certain as it was before, espceially if the Republicans chose to make her a target.

**Nevada - From Leaning Republican to Likely Republican**

Republican: Governor Joe Lombardo – 51%
Democrat: State Secretary Cisco Aguilar – 48%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Another incredible targeted seat by both sides, the Republicans outspent the Democrats by a comfortable margin and flooded the airwaves with their ADs, but the Democrats have turned out in force to attempt to rally for State Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar. The margins have narrowed and Lombardo now has a lead over 50%, but there is still a chance for the Democrats to peel off enough to make up the difference, but they can not be outspent and outshouted by the Republicans.

New Hampshire - Likely Republican

Republican: Governor Kelly Ayotte – 51%
Democrat: Senator Maggie Hassan – 48%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Matching dollar amounts and more ADs have allowed Governor Ayotte to retain her lead over Senator Hassan, but a strong stump is keeping her in the race. Like in Nevada, the Democrats will need a full court press to take back control of this race and put it into the Toss Up Category.

**New York - From Leaning Democrat to Toss Up**

Republican: Former NFL player Marcus Grant – 48%
Democrat: Congressman Ritchie Torres – 49%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Congressmen Torres is still bruised from the Primary and Marcus Grant has used that to close the gap, with slightly superior GOP funding in the state, and equal rallies on the ground. That New York is up in the air will likely worry some Democrats and embolden Republicans as the possibility of a Republican New York is a very real possibility. Congressman Torres will additional support form outside the Progressive wing to shore up the party and make those skittish about him come home.

**Ohio - From Leaning Republican to Likely Republican**

Republican: Congressman Mike Carey – 50%
Democrat: Justice Jennifer Brunner – 47%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Justice Brunner did well in her stump, but she was well outspent by the Republicans, and Congressman Carey is capitalizing on this to push himself above 50%. Ohio appears to be staying Red unless the Democrats redouble their efforts to capture the state.

Texas - Likely Republican

Republican: State Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham – 51%
Democrat: Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo – 46%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham has a commanding lead in the race to replace Governor Abbott. This was always an outside chance for the Democrats, perhaps with an alternate candidate, but this time around it would appear outside of the Democrats pouring all the resources they can into Texas, Texas will remain red.

**Wisconsin - From Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat**

Republican: Congressman Bryan Steil – 46%
Democrat: Governor Tony Evers – 53%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: The Republicans dropped the ball in Wisconsin, and that has allowed Governor Evers to run up the score. In all likeihood he will be re-elected in November.

Vesica · January 6

Senate Polling (Post Week One of the Campaign)

Analysis is included for the movements. Safe Races Pre-Election have been removed

Alaska - Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Dan Sullivan – 53%
Democrat: Congresswoman Mary Peltola – 47%
Undecided: <1%

Analysis: Despite the impressive push by the Democrats to put Peltola in play, the amount of support will likely have enough support to win the seat and retain it for the Republicans.

Florida - Leaning Republican to Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Byron Donalds – 50%
Democrat: Mayor Daniella Levine Cava – 47%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Superior Republican funding has allowed Senator Donalds to overcome his lack of incumbency advantage and help him widen his lead over Mayor Levine-Cava. There is still a chance for the Democrats to come back, it will take Ads, people and money.

Georgia - Leaning Democrat to Toss Up

Republican: Governor Brian Kemp – 49%
Democrat: Senator Jon Ossoff – 49.5%
Undecided: 1.5%

Analysis: As expected this is a brutal fight between Ossoff and Kemp. Superior Republican fundraising and additional Ad Buys have narrowed the gap to the closest race for the Senate. Ossoff was able to shore up his support from the Blue Dogs, if he can get shore up his support with the Progressives it may be enough, but the Democrats can not afford to take their foot off the gas, the Republicans can read the polls just as well and Governor Kemp is extremely popular.

Iowa - Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Joni Ernst – 51%
Democrat: Eleanor Miller – 46%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: A visit by President Van Horn and superior spending has given Senator Ernst a comfortable lead, but Eleanor Miller isn't out of the race yet. She had a very strong Ad supporting her, and the spending gap wasn't significant. This is a long shot for the Democrats, but still on the board.

Kansas - Leaning Republican to Toss Up

Republican: Senator Roger Marshall – 48.5%
Democrat: Governor Laura Kelly – 48.5%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: The dream of a blue Kansas is still very much alive. The Democrats matched the Republicans dollar for dollar, they put the work in on the ground, and most importantly, they peppered the state with Ads. Senator Marshall was anchored by out of state support, but Governor Kelly is extremely popular, and it's translated well into the Senate race.

Kentucky - Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Republican: State Senator Phillip Wheeler – 53%
Democrat: Former Attorney General Andy Beshear – 46%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Superior Republican spending, a visit by home town hero President Kyle Van Horn has given State Senator Phillip Wheeler all the support he needs to overtake former Attorney General Andy Beshear and secure the state for the Republicans.

Louisiana - Leaning Republican to Likely Republican

Republican: Senator Billy Nungesser – 51%
Democrat: Former Governor John Bel Edwards – 48%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Despite the lack of incumbency advantage, Senator Billy Nungesser has benefited from Duplantis largese to push himself over 50% and give him a comfortable lead in the Bayou State. Former Governor John Bel Edwards is still in contention, and if any Democrat could flip the state blue, he would be it, but this will be a slug for the Democrats and need a lot of focus.

Maine - Likely Democrat

Republican: Joanna Snowe – 48%
Democrat: Governor Janet Mills – 51%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Governor Mills holds a comfortable advantage over Republican challenger Joanna Snowe. Snowe has received considerable support from the RNC, but the Ad Buys for Mills and her own popularity in the state is anchoring her. This remains the most absolutely likely seat for the Democrats to flip.

Massachusetts - Likely Democrat

Republican: Former Governor Charlie Baker – 47%
Democrat: Mayor Michelle Wu – 50%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Despite superior Republican investments in the state, Mayor Wu has benefited from an exellent ad buy in the state and the state's own Democratic leanings. Governor Baker remains popular, and he remains in contention, but the Democrats just shore up a bit more, possibly from the Blue Dogs, Wu will have the state.

Michigan - Likely Democrat

Republican: William Anholts – 47%
Democrat: Governor Gretchen Whitmer – 52%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Former Commerce Secretary William Anholts has closed some of the gap between himself and Governor Whitmer, but she is comfortably above 50% in the polls, and she has clear momentum, despite Republican spending efforts on his behalf. This remains Governor Whitmer's race to lose.

Montana - Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Republican: Senator Wyatt Granger – 54%
Democrat: Former Governor Steve Bullock – 46%
Undecided: <1%

Analysis: Senator Granger has garnered enough support in the polls to ensure his re-election. Despite a spirited challenged by former Governor Steve Bullock, Montana will remain red.

New Hampshire - Leaning Democrat to Toss Up

Republican: Former Governor Chris Sununu – 49%
Democrat: Senator Jeanne Shaheen – 50%
Undecided: 1%

Analysis: Senator Shaheen retains an extremely narrow lead over former Governor Chris Sununu. Both Republicans and Democrats have matched their spending, dollar for dollar. The Democrats spent more time on the ground, but the Republicans have flooded the airwaves for a pair of effective ads. This seat is a high priority flip for the Republicans to offset their probably loss in Maine, and neither side can afford giving any ground in New Hampshire.

North Carolina - Leaning Republican to Likely Republican

Republican: Marjorie Ashcroft – 52%
Democrat: Former Governor Roy Cooper – 48%
Undecided: <1%

Analysis: Senator Ashcroft has benefits from mildly superior funding, more Ads in the air, and equal work on the ground. If the Democrats want to flip this Republican seat, they'll need to put in the work in terms of Ads buys, and more importantly, getting people on the ground for Cooper. This is likely Ashcroft's race to lose, but Cooper is still in the fight.

Texas - Likely Republican to Safe Republican

Republican: Governor Greg Abbott – 52%
Democrat: Mayor Ron Nirenberg – 45%
Undecided: 3%

Analysis: Although there is still a lot of voters out there still undecided, Governor Abbott has been able to coalsce a winning coalition amongst Texas voters, combined with his own popularity, and Mayor Nirenberg was fighting with a handicap with the New Democrats in the state being unhappy with how the Special Election ended, though this was by no means the fault of the Progressives, merely the New Democrats not showing up.

Virginia - Likely Democrat to Leaning Democrat

Republican: Winsome Earle-Sears – 49%
Democrat: Senator Mark Warner – 51%
Undecided: <1%

Analysis: This has turned into a real sleeper race, as the Republicans ran a full court press in the state with former Governor Earle-Sears. If the Democrats want to retain long held Virginia, they will need to get boots on the ground for Warner, and have Warner focus on his own re-election bid, rather then on aiding Congressional races. Warner is still the favorite, but this race didn't need to be as close as it is.

Morning Consult

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Iowa - Democratic Primary for Governor

Kansas - Republican Primary for Governor

Kansas - Democratic Primary for Governor

Maryland - Republican Primary for Governor

Massachusetts - Republican Primary for Governor

Michigan - Republican Primary for Governor

Michigan - Democratic Primary for Governor

Nebraska - Democratic Primary for Governor

Nevada - Democratic Primary for Governor

New Hampshire - Democratic Primary for Governor

New York - Democratic Primary for Governor

Ohio - Republican Primary for Governor

Oklahoma - Republican Primary for Governor

Oklahoma - Democratic Primary for Governor

Oregon - Republican Primary for Governor

Pennsylvania - Republican Primary for Governor

South Dakota - Republican Primary for Governor

Tennessee - Republican Primary for Governor

Tennessee - Democratic Primary for Governor

Texas - Democratic Primary for Governor

Wisconsin - Republican Primary for Governor

Wyoming - Republican Primary for Governor

Democratic Governor Primaries; Updated Polling

New York: Torres Takes the Lead

Georgia: Evans Edges Ahead

Michigan: McMorrow Surges

Alabama: Singleton lead weakens but holds

Alaska: Begich Maintains Advantage

Arkansas: Pryor Widens Lead

Florida: Three-Way Standoff Intensifies

Iowa: Hart Gains Commanding Lead

Nebraska: Kleeb Leads in Tight Three-Way Race

Nevada: Ford Remains Dominant

Oklahoma: Kirt Steadies Her Lead

South Carolina: McLeod's Narrow Edge

Tennessee: Clemmons Strengthens Position

Texas: Hidalgo vs. Alvarado - A Dead Heat

Takeaways

Republican Senate Primaries; Updated Polling

Minnesota: Birk Secures Commanding Lead